Time series of public opinion
Description
What drives support for war? A majority of the public opinion literature argues that it is elite driven; that is, those in higher intellectual or economic strata are more likely to show support than those at the opposite end (Zaller 1992, Wittkopf 1995). In this paper we study the correlation between education and public support for war. Analyzing hundreds of Gallup polls conducted during the Iraq, Vietnam, and Korean wars, we find that in many years the most and least educated respondents are less likely to support war than those falling in the middle categories. These patterns hold even when we account for party identification and other demographic factors. We discuss the implication of these findings on theories of opinion formation and change during wartime. Status: Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April 3-6, 2008.
People
- Principal investigator: Andrew Gelman
- Researchers: Shouhao Zhou, Jamie Chandler, John Kastellec
Papers
- The Playing Field Shifts: Predicting the Seats-Votes Curve in the 2008 U.S. House Election
Authors: Jonathan P. Kastellec, Andrew Gelman, Jamie P. Chandler
Cite: to appear in PS: Political Science and Politics, October 2008 - Predicting and Dissecting the Seats-Votes Curve in the 2006 U.S.
House Election
Authors: Jonathan P. Kastellec, Andrew Gelman, Jamie P. Chandler
Link: Paper
Cite: Kastellec, Jonathan P., Andrew Gelman & Jamie P. Chandler. (2008). "Predicting and Dissecting the Seats-Votes Curve in the 2006 U.S. House Election." PS: Political Science and Politics, 41(1).